AG2 TROPICAL REPORT AUGUST 25 2013

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.3N 130.5E TO 17.4N 126.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
242330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N
130.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.4N
132.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 130.0E, APPROXIMATELY 565 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, BASED ON AN OLDER 241452Z OSCAT PASS. ALTHOUGH
THE WIND SPEEDS REMAIN WEAKER NEAR THE CENTER, THE IMPROVING UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED VENTILATION OF THE SYSTEM
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN COMBINATION WITH FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, THE POSSIBILITY FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO
IMPROVE. CURRENTLY MUCH OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVING OVERALL ENVIRONMENT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
260130Z.
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 28.5N 166.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 28.5N 166.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 29.3N 165.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 30.5N 165.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 24.7N 114.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 24.7N 114.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 26.1N 115.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 26.7N 115.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 26.7N 116.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
STREAM OF MOISTURE FOLLOWS NORTHWARD WITH 73 DEGREES SEA TEMPERATURE
CAUSE SPILLAGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
WITH DANGER OF FLASH FLOODING
S$

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