AG2 TROPICAL REPORT SEPTEMBER 1 2013

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.6N 60.5W
TO 14.9N 67.1W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.6N 60.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING INTENSIFICATION OF
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT IS APPROXIMATELY 105 NM NORTHWEST OF
BARBADOS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A WEAK CIRCULATION
IS EVIDENT, HOWEVER MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH
AND WEST. WIND SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS OVER THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE SYSTEM IS HINDERING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER, LOWER WIND SHEAR VALUES OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEST OF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 83 TO 85
DEGREES WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROPICAL FEATURE.
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 25.9N 124.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 25.9N 124.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 26.7N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 27.5N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 28.2N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 28.5N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 29.5N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 31.7N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 35.9N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 21.0N 115.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N 115.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 21.9N 115.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 22.6N 116.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 23.1N 116.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 23.4N 116.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 23.8N 116.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
S$

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